China Energy Transformation Outlook 2024 / 中国能源转型展望2024 (CETO24)

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（中文介绍在下方）

China Energy Transformation Outlook 2024 (CETO24) reviews China’s energy transformation over the past decade, highlighting its latest achievements. It systematically analyses the prospects for the transformation of energy production and consumption while exploring pathways and technological solutions for achieving net-zero carbon emissions under different scenarios.

Key findings of the CETO24 Report

With significant efforts, the energy transformation can make a decisive contribution to China’s efforts to achieve a carbon-neutral society before 2060. Under the Baseline Carbon Neutrality Scenario (BCNS) and the Ideal Carbon Neutrality Scenario (ICNS), with the accelerated development of energy transformation technologies (including negative carbon technologies such as carbon capture) and related industries, China’s energy system can achieve net-zero carbon emissions before 2060, paving the way to make the Chinese society as a whole carbon neutral before 2060. Through modelling analysis and thematic research, the group came to five important conclusions:

  1. Energy conservation and efficiency are prerequisites for the energy transformation, and sustained electrification is an effective way to move towards carbon neutrality.
  2. Building a power system with wind and solar as the mainbody is a necessary choice for energy transformation.
  3. Building a highly intelligent power grid is a central measurement to establishing a new type of power system.
  4. Scientific and technological innovation is the driving force of the energy transformation, and new energy productivity breeds vast market opportunities.
  5. Energy system and mechanism reforms must continue to deepen while simultaneously establishing a legal framework to drive the energy transformation.

In summary, China’s energy transformation is a long-term and challenging societal project. China will simultaneously advance its energy transformation across five areas: electrify energy consumption and improve energy efficiency, decarbonise energy supply, enhance interaction between energy supply and demand, commercialise energy technologies, and modernise energy governance. At the same time, China should strengthen international cooperation on energy transformation, exploring pathways together with the global community. In doing so, China will not only ensure the smooth progression of its own energy transformation but also contribute significantly to the global effort.

Please download the English version of the CETO24 full report below:

CET_China Energy Transformation Outlook 2024_Full report 20250122Download

《中国能源转型展望2024》（CETO24）在分析近年全球能源转型发展的基础上，回顾了近十年中国能源转型的最新成效，系统分析了能源生产和消费的转型前景，重点探讨不同情景条件下，中国实现能源系统净零碳排放的路径和技术解决方案。

CETO24报告的主要结论

经过巨大努力，能源转型能为中国实现2060年前经济社会系统的碳中和作出决定性贡献。基准碳中和情景（BCNS）和理想碳中和情景（ICNS）情景下，随着能源转型技术（包括碳捕集等负碳技术）和相关产业加快发展，中国能源系统可以在2060年前实现净零碳排放，助力2060年前实现经济社会系统的碳中和。通过模型分析和专题研究，课题组得到五个重要结论：

  1. 节能和提高能效是能源转型的前提，持续的电气化是迈向碳中和的有效途径。
  2. 建设风光为主体的新型电力系统，是能源转型的必然选择。
  3. 构建高度智能化的电网新形态，是新型电力系统建立的关键举措。
  4. 科技创新是能源转型的动力来源，能源新质生产力孕育着广阔的市场空间。
  5. 能源体制机制改革需不断深化，同时构建推动能源转型的法律制度体系。

总之，中国的能源转型是一项长期而艰巨的社会工程。中国要从能源消费电气化、能源供应低碳化、能源供需互动化、能源科技产业化、能源治理现代化五个方面同步推进能源转型，同时加强能源转型国际合作，共同探索能源转型之路，在推动中国能源转型顺利前行的同时，为全球能源转型贡献中国力量。

CETO24中文全文报告请在这里下载：

CET_中国能源转型展望2024_全文 20250122Download